TYLER, Texas – Texas’s primary elections on March 3rd largely saw incumbents secure their party nominations, but a political science professor from the University of Texas at Tyler highlights a significant shift in voter enthusiasm that could reshape November’s general election. Dr. Mark Owens, a political science professor at UT Tyler, noted a lower overall turnout but an unexpected surge in Democratic early voting.
Among the most watched races, U.S. Senator Ted Cruz easily clinched the Republican nomination, while Beto O’Rourke secured the Democratic nod to challenge him. Governor Greg Abbott comfortably won the Republican primary for his re-election bid. The Democratic gubernatorial race, however, is headed to a May 22nd runoff between Lupe Valdez and Andrew White. Dr. Owens emphasized that these runoffs are crucial opportunities for candidates to build momentum.
For Attorney General, Ken Paxton won the Republican nomination, and Justin Nelson secured the Democratic spot. Similarly, Wayne Christian earned the Republican primary victory for Railroad Commissioner, with Roman McAllen winning the Democratic primary.
Statewide voter turnout was approximately 17%, a figure Dr. Owens described as "pretty low." However, a closer look at early voting data reveals a significant trend. Democrats cast roughly 700,000 early votes, compared to 900,000 for Republicans. This gap is notably narrower than in 2014, when Democrats recorded 300,000 early votes against 1.1 million for Republicans.
"That suggests a lot more enthusiasm on the Democratic side this year, especially across Texas," said Dr. Owens. He predicts that the general election in November will be significantly more competitive for major statewide races like Governor and Senate than in previous cycles. "They could be decided by just 5 to 8 points, not the usual 15 to 20 point landslides we've gotten used to here," he added.
The upcoming general election is anticipated to be an intense battle across the state, with discussions of a potential "blue wave" countered by Republican aspirations for a "red tide" of victories. In U.S. House races, several incumbents secured their nominations, including Republicans John Ratcliffe in District 4, Ron Wright in District 6, Mac Thornberry in District 13, and Brian Babin in District 36. Other House contests, such as the Republican primary in District 5 between Lance Gooden and Bunni Pounds, will also be decided in the May 22nd runoffs.
